Food Security Before Free Trade: A Call for Strategic Sequencing in the AfCFTA Era

By Lod Onyeji

In a position paper released today, the Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) warns that West and Central African nations, particularly Nigeria, risk exacerbating food insecurity and social fragility if they prioritize free trade over domestic food sufficiency. The paper, signed by Fwdr. Eugene Nweke, Head of Research & Policy Advisory Unit, argues that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must be implemented in a sequenced manner, with food security and agricultural transformation as the foundation.

SEREC's analysis draws on historical examples of China, India, and post-war Europe, which achieved food security through staged revolutions in technology, governance, and policy. In contrast, Africa's trajectory has been inverted, with liberalization preceding industrialization and importation preceding production.

The paper highlights alarming levels of food insecurity in Nigeria, with over 26 million people facing acute hunger, and warns that rushed AfCFTA implementation could lead to market flooding, deindustrialization, revenue loss, and expanded inequality.

SEREC proposes a "Food-First Implementation Strategy" with five critical dimensions: food security and agricultural transformation, trade sequencing and safeguards, infrastructure and logistics, institutional and financial systems, and social and labor safeguards.

The center advises governments to adopt a phased liberalization model, prioritizing irrigation, mechanization, biotechnology adoption, and extension services. SEREC also emphasizes the role of Shippers' Councils and regional platforms in ensuring effective AfCFTA implementation.

The position paper concludes that Africa's journey to shared prosperity must begin in its farmlands, not at its ports, and that trade is a bridge, not a foundation. Without food security and productive resilience, free trade becomes a recipe for vulnerability.

Key Recommendations:

- Conduct national AfCFTA readiness audit (food, logistics, industry)

- Create emergency buffer stocks and establish food-price stabilization task force

- Roll out "Food-First Implementation Plan" and harmonize SPS and trade procedures

- Incentivize domestic agro-processing industries and expand biotechnology and mechanization

Timeline:

- 0-12 months: National readiness audit and emergency measures

- 12-36 months: Food-First Implementation Plan and trade procedure harmonization

- 36-60 months: Biotechnology and mechanization expansion, smart subsidy models, and revenue replacement

- 60 months+: Full liberalization of high-value non-staple trade and export diversification consolidation